At an event to the launch of the annual “Predictions” report compiled by GSA’s official research partner CCS Insights, its team of researchers outlined where they believe the mobile telecoms industry is headed. Sponsored by the GSA, the event brought together over 120 leaders from the connected technology industry, to gain exclusive insights from analysts and industry experts.
One of the major talking points at this year’s event was how the advent of standalone 5G and 5G-Advanced means the industry now has an opportunity to realign expectations with reality.

You can download the full CCS Insights booklet of all 93 predictions, but here we pull out the ones that most caught our eye.

• By 2028, Internet of Things devices using 5G RedCap will outnumber 5G phones as the beneficial cost dynamics of 5G RedCap make the device ecosystem more accessible to enterprises and help satisfy an increasing demand for interconnected smart devices in manufacturing, healthcare and smart cities.
• By the end of 2028, more than half of new 5G standalone networks will support RedCap. This is backed up by GSA data which [SO1] identified that 23% of operators are already investing in 5G RedCap and, as more applications emerge, e.g. drones, power grids, robotics and transportation, this will accelerate.
• By 2028, fixed wireless access over 5G RedCap networks will eclipse LTE-based fixed wireless access in developing regions. This technology is well-suited to rural areas or countries with low levels of fibre penetration, such as Africa and the Middle East. where full 5G FWA is too costly.
• Despite geopolitics, there will be a single 6G standard globally. Within the context of past mobile technology divisions, the progress to a common 6G standard in 2030 and beyond will continue.
• 6G will arrive on time, with lead operators deploying the standard in 2030. Improvements promised by 6G will address many of 5G’s rough edges
• In Europe, the first companies to acquire 6G mobile spectrum may not be telecom operators. Allocation may go to large corporate companies, universities, neutral host providers and governments reflecting initial hesitancy by operators to invest heavily in another round of network upgrades.
• By 2025 a US carrier will surpass 100 private network deployments using its public network as part of a widespread drive to increase the adoption of private 5G and LTE networks by various industry sectors.
• By 2027, a European telecom operator will reposition itself as an enterprise specialist to prioritise its business unit, off the back of wider adoption of 5G and 5G standalone networks, which can be used to power automation, IoT and private networks.

CCS Predictions 2025

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From 28 February to 4 March, the MWC show took place as an in-person event in Barcelona. In this report we analyse the key themes from the show.

Insight

The return of a physical show heralded the reappearance of many familiar themes in the mobile landscape. There was a noticeable energy at the event from exhibitors and attendees, and although attendee numbers were lower than normal, it was a far cry from the empty halls of 2021. However, the show took place against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, which resulted in little media attention to MWC outside the flow of technology news, and a sense of wider uncertainty permeated the show’s discourse.

As CCS Insight predicted, the conversation about 5G turned to the maturing of the technology and its ability to drive value, which was a core theme of the show. The network and infrastructure space saw plenty of development in cloud-native networking, 5G-based edge computing, virtual radio access network (RAN) and Open RAN.

Devices had a relatively quiet show, with almost no notable product announcements. The breakout device-makers of recent years, such as Oppo and Xiaomi, flexed their muscles with large stands demonstrating products, which included devices with flexible screens. Major semiconductor players such as Qualcomm and MediaTek had an important presence as enablers of the next generation of connected devices.

The metaverse was thankfully a relatively muted topic of conversation, with greater nuance than we had expected. Instead of simply driving hype, mentions of the metaverse largely focussed on a more gradual transition to next-generation spatial computing experiences and the infrastructure needed for this.

Sustainability spread its roots across the show to the extent that it was notable when major companies did not at least attempt to communicate their green credentials. It has become a firmly embedded part of conversations about networking and devices. It is easy for companies to say they care about the environment, and the important next step is for these words to turn into measurable, demonstrable and accountable actions.

MWC 2022 – Major Themes

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The standalone mode of 5G New Radio (NR) represents what many in the industry consider to be true 5G, as it will let operators deliver new experiences beyond the non-standalone version that has so far underpinned most5G services.

Non-standalone 5G uses existing LTE networking infrastructure, whereas the standalone mode is based on 5Gcells for both signalling and information transfer. It includes new 5G packet core architecture, so that instead of relying on the LTE core, 5G can be deployed without pre-existing LTE equipment in the network.

Importantly, the 5G standalone core is cloud-native and is designed as a service-based architecture, virtualizing all software network functions using edge computing and providing the full range of 5G features. Some of these are needed in the enterprise space for advanced uses such as smart factory automation, smart city applications, remote control of critical infrastructure and autonomous vehicle operation. However, 5G standalone does mean additional investment and can bring complexity in running multiple cores in the network.

This will be a potential source of new revenue for service providers, as digital transformation — with 5G standalone as a cornerstone — will enable them to deliver reliable low-latency communications and massive Internet of things (IoT) connectivity to customers in different industry sectors. The low latency and much higher capacity needed by those emerging service areas will only be feasible with standalone 5G and packet corenetwork architecture.

In addition, the service-based architecture opens up the ability to slice the 5G network into customized virtualpieces that can be tailored to the needs of individual enterprises, while maximizing the network’s operationalefficiency. Advanced uses for 5G NR aren’t backward- compatible with LTE infrastructure, so all operators willeventually need to get to standalone 5G.

Non-standalone 5G has been a necessary step in the global transition to 5G, but the standalone variant is arguably where the action will be. And at CCS Insight, we’ve been watching with interest those that are already embracing the technology.

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The Power of Standalone 5G

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As another action-packed year in the telecom world draws to a close, it’s time for me to reveal my selection of the top stories of the past 12 months. You can read my review of 2020 here.

In 2021, the pandemic continued to highlight the crucial role of connectivity, and this coincided with some operators refocussing their strategies on network quality and digital inclusion. We also saw momentum forOpen RAN, partnerships with investors from outside the telecom sector, more mergers and acquisitions, and growing emphasis on the environment. So, take a look and tell me if you agree or disagree with my choices.

AT&T combines WarnerMedia business with pay-TV provider Discovery. This is my biggest story of 2021 because it represented a massive change of tack for AT&T. Just three years earlier, the carrier splurged more than $80 billion to buy Time Warner. The Discovery deal also came just a few months after AT&T spun off its linear TV business, DirecTV, which cost it a mere $50 billion. As for other telecom players, Verizon finally offloaded its AOL and Yahoo brands and BT considered options for BT Sport as operators began to retrenchfrom their adventurous forays of the past back to their connectivity roots.

Dish Network goes all in with Amazon Web Services. It’s appropriate that Dish Network is launching its first 5G service in the US capital of gambling, Las Vegas. In April, the aspiring greenfield network operator said that it was entrusting AWS to handle most of its Open RAN-based 5G network in the cloud. A huge endorsement for AWS, this is a big bet from Dish Network, one that it hopes will help set its network apart byachieving a high degree of flexibility, automation and cost-saving.

Sky starts selling its own TVs in the UK. Sky Glass streams content over a home broadband connection,meaning customers no longer need a set-top box or satellite dish. The move is a response to two leading threats to Sky’s established satellite TV business: the changing ways in which people access and interact withcontent, and the proliferation of streaming providers. For our detailed analysis see Insight Report: Sky GlassSeeks to Fend Off Threat from Streaming Rivals.

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Top 10 Telecom Stories of 2021

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At its re:Invent 2021 event in early December, Amazon Web Services (AWS) launched a pre-integrated managed service for private 5G networks.

Insight

AWS used its annual showcase event to launch a managed private 5G service, AWS Private 5G, a plug-and-play, pay-as-you-go, one-stop solution comprised of small cell radio access network (RAN) units, core and RAN software, mobile device SIM cards, and edge server and edge-cloud resources on which the system runs. The service supports remotely located 5G core network functions hosted by AWS as well as network edge functions in on-site AWS Outposts — a move that could bring it into competition with operators, although for now there seems to be enough market separation to mitigate any friction with its operator customers.

Analysis

• AWS Private 5G is designed to help companies build dedicated on-site private networks at their facilities in days instead of months, with customers able to order from a website, specifying where they want to build, the required network capacity for their devices, the number of SIMs and so on. AWS delivers and deploys pre-integrated radio units, servers, core and RAN software, and SIM cards, and maintains the private 5G network.
• Although no partners were named, AWS already works with Mavenir on RAN and Athonet as a core network partner. Set-up and deployment of AWS Private 5G is automated, and the service scales capacity on demand to support additional devices and network traffic. There are no upfront fees or per-device costs, and customers only pay for the network capacity and throughput they request. AWS CEO Adam Selipsky described the product as “shockingly easy” to use.
• Although private mobile networks offer considerable potential benefits to enterprises in supporting digital transformation and implementing innovative new uses, there is potential complexity too, as solutions typically require a combination of providers for network connectivity, networking equipment, cloud provision, systems integration, devices and application development. Integrating all of these with an enterprise’s existing IT infrastructure and services is non-trivial, so a simplified, pre-integrated solution like AWS Private 5G has appeal. Enterprises do not need to procure and integrate software and hardware components from multiple suppliers, configure and operate the mobile network or undertake a lengthy procurement process to increase network capacity when usage scales up. Nor must they manage different security policies and systems for each type of device connected to a private mobile network, a headache for integration with IT management systems. Customers simply insert the AWS-supplied SIM cards into their devices.

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AWS Positions Itself As One-Stop Solution for Private 5G Networks

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